Debriefing first training day in Villeuneuve

It is ok, if the game can still be brought to an end, where the result comes to a draw or better. But with dwarfs as the supposed scorer, that then have a potential desastrous result (obviously depending on when exactly the anvil explodes and how the opponent (can) react to that), it is not ok, as long as Xaviers dream of getting into top 3 is still the goal, as this will fuck up this plan quite badly as long as everything else goes as supposed.
Of course I am speaking strictly statistically - reallity will always be different.

So to be a bad thing, the anvil should:
- First blow up
- Then at the really bad time
- Against the wrong army
- The opponent as to be able to react quickly
--> It seems to be really not probable, I am speaking strictly statistically - reallity will always be different.

The anvil costs comperatively more and depending on when exactly it blows up, has way more potential to lead to a desastrous result for the player that loses the anvil, then it would do for the player losing his Level 4 at the worst possible moment.

The anvil cost around 350pts, your level 4 depend of the army cost around 250pts and more if it's the general. Therefore imo it's not a "comparatively" more expensive cost. Plus blowing up your lvl 4 means having big trouble during your opponents magic phase... Therefore loosing your lvl 4 or the anvil seems to be imo kind of the same thing.

The bad matchups you stated are indeed not so bad (not good either) for the army polux suggests. The really bad matchups are Vampires and some Deamon/Breton builds - Alan can surely suggest some. And those might well be found at the end of pairing depending on their goal in the opponents team roster.

imo I don't think that the Vampire will be at the end, maybe the deamon/Breton I agree with you on this point

So to be a bad thing, the anvil should:
- First blow up

We have already agreed, that this will - statistically - happen. So this is - statistically - certain.

- Then at the really bad time

I said - a desaster (3:17 and worse) will result, from this happening at a bad time. If it happens, it will already very likely result in an undesired and unplanned result far away from the original planning. As polux is correctly planning to use the anvil only when needed, it will always be at a bad time. The remaining question is only, how bad it will be.

- Against the wrong army

For blowing up the anvil, each army is the wrong army in that case - so again - certainty.

- The opponent as to be able to react quickly

Specifically, to make it a desastrous result for us. It will always be bad.

--> It seems to be really not probable, I am speaking strictly statistically - reallity will always be different.

Now with the above made corrections to your statements, what seemed unprobable to you, becomes somewhat quite likely to happen, again - statistically speaking.

The anvil cost around 350pts, your level 4 depend of the army cost around 250pts and more if it's the general. Therefore imo it's not a "comparatively" more expensive cost. Plus blowing up your lvl 4 means having big trouble during your opponents magic phase... Therefore loosing your lvl 4 or the anvil seems to be imo kind of the same thing.

Level 4s are not necessarily the general, or if they are, they will have equipmentto reroll/ignore miscast(s) and even with the worst miscast they have a 50% chance that nthing bad will happen to them. So the likelihood of your general level 4 blowing up will be comperably lower than your anvil blowing up. And in regard to magic defense - losing the anvil also costs the dwarf quite some dispelling power, even though probably not as much as losing the Level 4. But then again, not many armies only field 1 mage...

I don't think that the Vampire will be at the end

Agreed - it is not very likely, but if the opponents team roster is build in a way, that the Vampire is set up as a scorer, that may well happen.
Basically the same reasoning as with our dwarves at the moment - using them instead of a roadblock as a scorer.

Buchi wrote: And in regard to magic defense - losing the anvil also costs the dwarf quite some dispelling power, even though probably not as much as losing the Level 4. But then again, not many armies only field 1 mage...

I actually think it's worse to loose the Anvil than the Lvl 4, usually the scroll is carried by a cady lvl 1 or 2 whereas the anvil grants mosts of the Dwarfes their entire dispel.

Cheers,

Biboun

In my opinion, it's good to construct roasters that people are not used to play against, since then they'll start doing pairing mistakes/playing mistakes.

The ETC I scored best points was a time where most Empire were playing gunline, and I was playing 2 times flagellants. So lots of demons and vampire counts were paired against me, and I killed them because they wanted to rush me, and flagellants could do their job.

The other two ETC I played, I was having a more mainstream list, and it worked less, because opponents were knowing what to expect.

Of course the roaster still has to be solid!

For the choice of armies, I' like us to have armies that can defend as well as that can push. I mean, I think that we should be able to throw any army and push with any army.
The more option we have, the better we'll do the pairing.

Dim wrote:In my opinion, it's good to construct roasters that people are not used to play against, since then they'll start doing pairing mistakes/playing mistakes.

The ETC I scored best points was a time where most Empire were playing gunline, and I was playing 2 times flagellants. So lots of demons and vampire counts were paired against me, and I killed them because they wanted to rush me, and flagellants could do their job.

The other two ETC I played, I was having a more mainstream list, and it worked less, because opponents were knowing what to expect.

Of course the roaster still has to be solid!

For the choice of armies, I' like us to have armies that can defend as well as that can push. I mean, I think that we should be able to throw any army and push with any army.
The more option we have, the better we'll do the pairing.

Agreed!

@ Buchi

I'm just saying that there is like a shit tone of situation in which it will not be bad when the anvil blow up! Imo to be a disaster you need a lot of different bad elements at exactly the same time. Maybe by putting the dwarf in the last quarter we taking a little bit more risks but this imo a risk that we can easily take!!

In my opinion, it's good to construct roasters that people are not used to play against, since then they'll start doing pairing mistakes/playing mistakes.

The ETC I scored best points was a time where most Empire were playing gunline, and I was playing 2 times flagellants. So lots of demons and vampire counts were paired against me, and I killed them because they wanted to rush me, and flagellants could do their job.

The other two ETC I played, I was having a more mainstream list, and it worked less, because opponents were knowing what to expect.

Of course the roaster still has to be solid!

For the choice of armies, I' like us to have armies that can defend as well as that can push. I mean, I think that we should be able to throw any army and push with any army.
The more option we have, the better we'll do the pairing.

Totally agreed!!

Maybe by putting the dwarf in the last quarter we taking a little bit more risks but this imo a risk that we can easily take!!

I respect your opinion, but do not share it at all.

So basically, apart from all the rethoric tools used and failed atempt to convince the other party, the points we have to clear are:

1) Do we want to take the dwarves with us?
2) If yes, what kind of orientation do we want to give to them?
3) Finally, anvil or not anvil?

I would say the dwarf with anvil more than without because nobody come fearless against them and this is always a dangerous match-up for the enemy ( as well as for the dwarf sometimes) but for the "classical" dwarf some enemy can score without danger. This army is really hard to pair for the enemy I think!

Maybe it will add a lot to the discussion, so could you list all the different races and say what you expect against them with or without the anvil?

To make that easier - I am not against the anvil. I am against the idea of using the army as designated scorer.

When we can agree on that, everything will be fine (from my perspective).

Every time, when I think about the anvil, I here a voice in my head singing:
"cracks call, pit of shades and purple sun
give me the dwarfes, that will be fun"


I agree with buchi, that it's maybe not the best plan, to use the dwarfes as the scorer.
If the opponent team rooster allows that, well, than for that specific round it can work. But in the major plan, I can't really imagine, that this will work as prefered.

I think we can find better armies for this job.

But Dwarfes can make both of the parties happy :

- Should there be no favorable scoring matchups, we will use them defensively (because that can easily be the case with the roosters presented to us).

- Should we find a good opportunity for them to score (because they can score better than some other armies in given conditions), then we will use them in an agressive way.


The point is to bring some armies that come a bit out of the ordinary and that can bring an element of surprise or just be played safe, which asks for a bit of skill, but given ours is perfectly doable.


@ Darksteve :

It's really hard to get magic working against a dwarf, except if the anvil is destroyed (exactly as a Lvl4 would blow himself up).


Cheers

Biboun

But Dwarfes can make both of the parties happy :

- Should there be no favorable scoring matchups, we will use them defensively (because that can easily be the case with the roosters presented to us).

- Should we find a good opportunity for them to score (because they can score better than some other armies in given conditions), then we will use them in an agressive way.


The point is to bring some armies that come a bit out of the ordinary and that can bring an element of surprise or just be played safe, which asks for a bit of skill, but given ours is perfectly doable.

It was exactly what Xavier and I were saying

@ Buchi yes it's not a scorer but It could do huge point with a good match (not like WE or defensive DE or other draw army) you can go against a lot of people so you don't need a particular moment to be thrown I think (It could be a reel help for match-up and a reel hell for enemy match-up I think.)

@XavierYeah you could , but this is a little bit subjective so on the paper people could always tell this or that and we don't know what'is really true.
But it's a good idea to have an overwiev.

If someone think the miners and anvil army is less dangerous against some enemy he can say why, personnaly I think it's usually better but more "random" (due to the anvil")

it would be like this (it's my very personnal thinking and it's short so it could be wrong for somebody)

If you have something to say or if you don't agree tell m please^^.

	No anvil list	Anvil list
BRE	dangerous but not auto-loose	the same but worst for the BRE cause his unit and treb aren't safe against 35 dwarf GW
SKA	the dwarf win by a little bit	the dwarf win and and can destroy the ska if it goes well
EMP	easy	easyer (but it's my point of view dim don't agree^^)
DE	hard to win for DE but for me too(usulally arround draw)except dragon	very powerfull against a lot of DE list
HE	hard to win for HE (only magic with luck) but for me too (except dragon)	very powerfull except against too much lions (like 2 time 28)
WE	haha	Mouahahah
LIZ	only chance to win is magic or mass saurus list (usually little win for the dwarf)	very good for the dwarf, only chance is magic
DOC	hard for DF as usuall but can be ok and it's good if he has a great demon	hard also but more dangerous for the deamon
WOC	Usually good for the dwarf but not a big and certain win	the same here cause chaos unit are too poerful for miners to come even in the back (choosen Xd)
OK	Dangerous , you have to shoot very very well if you want to win otherwise it's a draw or a deafeat	better cause your miners can kill the ferox or the iron belly in one good charge in the back/flank
O&G	very good match-up	still very good but not better cause you stay in your quarter (fanatics and mangler squigs are too dangerous)
TK	don't Know I think easy.	don't Know I think easy too.
VC	bad match-up but very dangerous for him if I shoot his vampire lord it's 19/18-0 instead of a good match for him	bad match-up too but he still has to be very carefull with miners
CD	Very big advantages, more shooting , +1 to begin quarrelers the CD don't want this match up cause he need luck (first turn+good shooting)	more risky cause know we have the same shooting but if the kd'aii die before miners come it's a big win
DF	The best anti shooting dwarf army ,lot more shooting than them(usually) and+1 to begin, therefor I think I loose against the dwarf with 35 miners and rangers	very good also cause we have the same shooting but I can be aggresive too , I can't use my miners if he has the big hammerer DS so it would be a shooting fight only

Summary:

No anvils: The best of the best shooting, excellent against shooting or defending army ( I think) EMP, CD, DF, O&G and a some DE, LIZ, SKA (but less powerfull)
Anvil: still very good against these army but better against the other and can do something against a corner!

Paul

@Biboun:

@ Darksteve :

It's really hard to get magic working against a dwarf, except if the anvil is destroyed (exactly as a Lvl4 would blow himself up).

You're right in general, but if there is an anvil, I just need to get one speel working, so all I try to do is, bring that specific spell with irresistible force, so I throw as many dices as possible and hope the best. That means for me, that there is a not too small risk, that the dwarfes as scorer will fail against this opponent.

But you just wrote what I wanted to say in my post:

- Should there be no favorable scoring matchups, we will use them defensively (because that can easily be the case with the roosters presented to us).

- Should we find a good opportunity for them to score (because they can score better than some other armies in given conditions), then we will use them in an agressive way.

I agree on this, if there is a chance for bringing the dwarfes in the right matchup they can score, but it should not be our major plan to get the dwarfes in such matchups and instead just take them if possible and otherwise go for safe pairings and let the real scorer make points.

bring that specific spell with irresistible force

Now that spells in the lore of shade and the lore of death may only be cast with four dices, I don't think magic is that of an issue against the anvil (since apart from a non so likely irresistible force, any of those spells on the anvil will be dispelled)

agree on this, if there is a chance for bringing the dwarfes in the right matchup they can score, but it should not be our major plan to get the dwarfes in such matchups and instead just take them if possible and otherwise go for safe pairings and let the real scorer make points.

I totally agree on that !
My idea was just, to not send the dwarf to our opponent in the first or second place.
Because I think, every army except those two (and still, even those may score well) has to be able to score. If Dwarves are in the pack, they therefore must be able to score as well. Given this statement, I think (and that's my personal opinion) that a list with minors will be better off in most of the situations (and Paul, as an experienced dwarf player, seems to think likewise)


I think that in the end we all come to an agreement that may be summarized with those few words:

-dwarves are not an army to be sent in theory (many missmatchs) but might be if the other team lacks to dwarves counters (not very likely)
-dwarves may be a hard game for some armies (thus they can score well)
-hence dwarves are in a good position to be in our category "stable but able to push some of those folks"
-in the end it also all depends on how the structure of our opponents' metagame is like


I think once we'll have agreed on the purpose we want to give our dwarfs, we then will be able to test drafts and see what works better.

I could not agree more with what Darksteve just said.

@polux
I think you overestimate your army quite a bit and hope that you will have enough opportunity to test some matchups very very extensively (20+ games against opponents how play there army very well). Specifically against:

Bretons with flying circus and double treb.
Empire with "pure" 1+ army
Demons especially with large fiends
Lizardmen especially double shadow lists e.g. the german one
OK (as even if you charge in the flank or back, the characters can be there in the fighting rank soaking damage, using the breath attack of the firebelly, wielding the crown and being stubborn)
O&G shooting army

That you should have an advantage against another dwarf player, is interesting. I probably do not understand you correctly, but you assume your skills being above your opponents or why do you think that a very good matchup (for me that means you will win 15+ withonly a small chance for deviation.

I also think that Paul clearly overestimate the matchups.
However I think it's good to see how does he feel against each army with or without the anvil.

Of course we'll have to make those predictions more accurate, since it will be the keys in our pairing process (with the pairing tool of Dim)
We'll have 10 month for that, fair enough given how well we started

Empire, Brets, Deamons, Ogers are really hard to manage !

That you should have an advantage against another dwarf player, is interesting. I probably do not understand you correctly, but you assume your skills being above your opponents or why do you think that a very good matchup

I think he made both of us confused on that point. It's all about which of the anvil or the lord list has the advantage

I think he want to say that without the anvil he has the advantage against dwarves who play the anvil in a defensive purpose (so no like the french list) because he as one more WM and 5+ ward save against shouting.

Buchi wrote:
Bretons with flying circus and double treb.
Empire with "pure" 1+ army
Demons especially with large fiends
Lizardmen especially double shadow lists e.g. the german one
OK (as even if you charge in the flank or back, the characters can be there in the fighting rank soaking damage, using the breath attack of the firebelly, wielding the crown and being stubborn)
O&G shooting army

Let me just disagree with O&G, Dangerous!?! I have more shooting , more precise indirect shooting and +1 to begin so they have (normally) to move and if they do so they are slow, finally (little but underestimetad bonus) I HATE them . Usually I think about O&G as a good match with the only really big danger comming from the 40 savage orc, hard to stop Xd, I twas thinking it was easy for empire too but I have not tested in off since the reedition (2 time two victory that's why ^^).

After some test a lizardmen with only skink is not so dangerous against dwarf so as you and I said the danger is the magic (2 times pit) or more CaC it depend on the list.

But for the rest I agree with and I said the same in the same resume no?And I think you misunderstood my estimation a little bit, it is not so optimistic it's juste clear. For example when I say easy it's not 20-0 it's "normally" a win but not sure it's just a good match up and i'm happy. If you want I remake my plan with + and - to be more explicit^^.

with like:
++ good match up
+ small advantage
0/+ draw or maybe 11,12
-defeat
-- bad match up.

and it depend a lot on the list , it's just against the "most common list at the previous ETC" like pegasus DE or mass skink liz.

	No anvil list	Anvil list
BRE	--	-
SKA	0	0/+
EMP	++	++
DE	0/+	+
HE	0/+	+
WE	++	++
LIZ	+	+
DOC	--	-
WOC	0/+	0/+
OK	--	-
O&G	++	++
TK	?	?
VC	--	--
CD	++	0/+
DF	++	+

About the dwarf:
The big majorities of dwarf armies come with 3 warmachines the anvil and or 20 miners or lot of hammerers, against these army I have :+1 one to begin, 1 more warmachine and 5+ ward save for them ,that gave me a huge advantage for shooting fight so usually the dwarf isn't happy (he has to win the first turn and kill me at least two warmachine with 5+ ward save so it's unlikely.

But sorry I only talk about the Dwarf and trust the whole thread wich is a general feed back, I stop talking only about dwarf It was just to clarify a little bit.

Paul

Thanks for the feedback - the ++, + etc makes it a bit mor comparable but would you mind giving ++ and + an approximate point value please?

I still think that the Empire matchup is extremely and O&G is moderatelyy overrated by you.
Mind you, I am not saying and have never said, that O&G will defeat you, but they can arrange for a small loss (on their side obviously) or even a draw possibly. So your estimation of ++ is imo rather a 0/+. Against Empire a draw imo is far more likely and the risk for deviation is extreme, depending on terrain, who can choose sides, who goes first, how the shootout in the end will come out (usually he will have 3 canons, one probably able to move but granted you have the 5+ WS so you got a slight advantage here), what magic he uses (can be a real disadvantage to you as an irresistable force can cost you the game big time) and how his 1+ armoursaves work out. Giving this matchup a ++ hence seems quite strange to me.

From my perspective your calculations seem not to take into account, that at the ETC the crown of command is allowed. Hence every army can and very likely will have at least 1 blocker for one of your big blocks, opening up opportunities for counters or even aggressive moves depending on your positioning of the rangers in the first turn.
But that is just my gut feeling

Also the wood elves, I don't see how you're going to bring many points, especially against the list I faced last time.

And for the shooting challenge Dwarves-Empire, remember that catapults have a range of only 48 inches So if I do the opposite corner, it can be fun and if you don't corner, I can come with my big cavalry and I play Heavens, so I'm sure you'll like the IF comete... No, it's not that easy for you in my opinion.

I have a question. Can I Blizzard the anvil?

Dim wrote:Also the wood elves, I don't see how you're going to bring many points, especially against the list I faced last time.

And for the shooting challenge Dwarves-Empire, remember that catapults have a range of only 48 inches So if I do the opposite corner, it can be fun and if you don't corner, I can come with my big cavalry and I play Heavens, so I'm sure you'll like the IF comete... No, it's not that easy for you in my opinion.

I have a question. Can I Blizzard the anvil?

You can't blizzard the anvil (even the storm banner don't work if I remember well^^).

So to explain against empire, I agree the 1+ save is the danger in close combat but when you say it's a dangerous shooting fight that's not true , same for O&G, cause the no anvil army is (for me) the best army for the warmachine supremacy.
example: against empire I have 4 warmachines so one more, 4 life points each so more able to resist 5+ ward save so more able to resist , they don't blow , I have +1 to begin AND my grudge thrower have 60 inches range no 48.
But yes if you have some luck with magic like an irresistible turn 2 with comets I still can loose and your list has the runefang so yes it's not easy at all but without it I think it's still good for the dwarf(remember never hope about one spell only cause I can destroy it and EACH turn I can dispel it if you don't have a double 6 the only way is to have two time this good spell , like the slann ). But maybe it's only a + against empire .

Do you really think that the empire would come and think "ohh cool it's a not a bad-match-up for me not too many risk etc..." I think he would have lot of pressure cause he have to run.

and sorry for my resume he is pretty shitty I think cause I was focused on my mind and he is not really easy to understand, for example:
++ against WE is to say that I'm really happy with this match up cause I CAN'T loose (a WE would never come, he stay and shoot) but I not sure of bringing many points he can't still manage to have 11 if he play well.

but when you say it's a dangerous shooting fight that's not true , same for O&G, cause the no anvil army is (for me) the best army for the warmachine supremacy.

No one has ever said, that the shooting fight will dangerous to you. What was said, is that chances are high that if something goes not statistically, then due to a large number of things that can influence the outcome of the fight, you will not see the expected result but a potentially large deviation from that expectation. What these things are, was mentioned.
I will give you an example: Dim casts the Comet irresistible first round it comes down next round and kills 2 WMs. Unlikely? Hell, yes. Impossible? Hell no. Same with the shootout - if he goes first and gets a bit lucky he will not kill 1 WM (that would be the expectation with 3 cannons) but kills 2. Again, unlickely? Yes indeed. Impossible? No way! There are several other factors I have mentioned. Imagine a wall behind which he might hide his canons before your canons (Germany had such a game last ETC) and so on and so forth.
Those will never happen all at the same time. Chances are, that just one or none of these things will happen during each game. But if this happens - the potential result will very much differ, from your original expectation. Hence a ++ is just not in order as you yourself already admitted.
About my expectations against O&G I will detail my answer a bit more:
Against your shooting army without anvil, O&G are unlikely to be paired in the first place, but even if both parties will likely just corner and you cannot rush him really. His BSB and General will be out of LOS quite likely, so only your catapults can sniper at them, where you will go against 2+ Lookout Sir, 4+ WS and have to wound and do enough wounds. In the course of the game, statistically not that likely to shoot down both let alone one as you also have to shoot his WMs down to prevent him from scoring anything. So whatever you shoot he will usually test 10 rerollable for panic. Now, please tell us how will you score your ++ result?
With the anvil army it looks a bit different. Much will depend on how you will set up your rangers and when exactly your miners will arrive. The O&G has the option to try and storm you. That will depend much if you position the army and especially the rangers aggresively and who goes first. The other option is to just sit and wait (when you deploy rather defensively) covering one angle with the crown and the other with cheap and expandable units. If you put the miners close to the OG and try to push, you will lose them, as they cannot be helped by the rangers. If you corner with them as well, you only have shooting to score. So again the question: please tell us how will you score your ++ result?

Do you really think that the empire would come and think "ohh cool it's a not a bad-match-up for me not too many risk etc..." I think he would have lot of pressure cause he have to run.

Nobody thinks that and has said that, so please work with the things that the posters before expressed.
The Empire player will face the same risks as you do. His expectation will be a draw with a slight advantage to you, very likely, but with as much room for deviation as for you. But as we already all agreed, there are indeed many good matchups for you and if the opponents team roster has not that many options against your list, you will likely see Empire paired against you, if they have that, as the matchup is not so bad for the Empire as you are trying to make it with ++.

Now in respect to that:

and sorry for my resume he is pretty shitty I think cause I was focused on my mind and he is not really easy to understand, for example:
++ against WE is to say that I'm really happy with this match up cause I CAN'T loose (a WE would never come, he stay and shoot) but I not sure of bringing many points he can't still manage to have 11 if he play well.

Your list is probably telling a different thing than what you said in the post:

++ good match up
+ small advantage
0/+ draw or maybe 11,12
-defeat
-- bad match up.

To me it would mean the following pointswise:

++ good match up - at least 15 points for us with not much risk that the result will be lower
+ small advantage - at least 12-13 points for us, reasonable risk that the result will be lower but chances to be higher
0/+ draw or maybe 11,12 - agree
0 - draw
-defeat - at least 7-8 points for us, reasonable risk that the result will be lower but chances to be higher
-- bad match up - max 5 points for us, risk that the result will be lower with small chances to be higher

Now, would you mind doing your table again, using my explanations for ++, + etc pp?

Thanks in advance very much!